Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (January 11 2023)
The daily chart gives a little more detailed insight into the bigger picture of the BTCUSD price history.
It’s revealed that Bitcoin is now trading above its 50-day moving average, representing a bullish medium-term outlook, as the far right tail of the curve turns up, slightly.
The 200-day trend may work as an additional anchor for many investors, looking at $19500 for resistance. At first, whenever the price approaches the resistance, it may face a barrier of selling into the bids in that area. Besides, it has shifted the direction of the long-term trend, as the slope and pace of declines have decreased substantially.
Still, the $17500 area works as technical resistance. Once broken, it may reinforce the newly-shaped trend to persist toward the next area of interest at $19500. Also, breaking above 17.5k USD would also prove the bearish descending triangle concept to fail. Failed patterns tend to perform better in the opposite direction, then.
The medium-term chart suggests that the market directions are now much more upward-oriented.
While it gives no guarantee the prices will travel north, there is an average consensus that Bitcoin should likely move within a well-defined zone at $17000-17700. If the zone is broken to the upside, a more explosive and accelerated rally may emerge.
Otherwise, from the technical standpoint, failing to hold the support area at 17000 USD may contribute to invalidating the bullish 12H and 1D setups. Furthermore, this could cause the downside move to extend below the 16500 USD, or lower.
It would be owed to the phenomenon that the failed patterns which fail to follow through tend to travel more persistently in the opposite direction.
FEAR & GREED INDEX
At 26 points on the scale, out of 100, the “fear” is marked as the dominant market sentiment.
Still, there is considerable amount of pessimism in the market and the cognitive dissonance may build up even further if the prices rally higher, leaving disoriented traders behind.
The greatest amount of cognitive dissonance is experienced at the early stages of the reversals, as the new information conflicts the prior views of the market’s going down.
It seems to be well reinforced by the market scanner, suggesting that there is a strong bullish incentive on the daily time frame. Meanwhile, the weekly chart maintains the bullish momentum with the low time frames being filled with uncertainty and emotional biases confusing traders.
Overall, it seems that the market is starting to feel constructive about the ascend, and less bearish. However, Bitcoin is not out of the woods, as long as the market technicals suggest it’s trading below the 200-day average.
Caution is advised.
Hope it helps.