Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (February 23 2022)

HTF 12H:

The middaily chart is showing an attempt of BTCUSD to build a local based in the 36-38k USD region. Though, the bounce is not yet as spectacular as it should be to validate any upwards breakout confirmation, to my mind.

BTC has bounced slightly off of the previous lows area in the low 36000 USD region, prior to the strong upwards breakout above 40k USD level.

Based on the price action alone, if this support fails to hold, there are higher chances of BTCUSD throwback continuing downwards into the 33-34k USD demand zone. That beind said, as of now bitcoin has considerable chances of an upside pullback into the 40-42k USD area, where the main resistances line up together.

The CTF Trailer is currently in the bearish mode, meaning that the bears have the upper hand and control over the market for now. It does not prohibit thrusts to the upside. Instead, it suggests that the technical consensus is bearish and the bears are in control. In this context, it aligns with the short-term downwards trend, being a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. In the broader context, BTC is ranging between the 33000 USD lows and the 45000 USD highs – sideways.

The CTF Trailer Stop at 41578 USD is the main invalidation level for the bearish thesis, above which the bulls re-gain the control over the market and stand the chance to re-build the upwards momentum for further appreciation.

MTF 4H:

The MTF chart is currently showing a short-term bounce off of the Level Line support area given previously, at the 36208 USD. Now, bitcoin is trying to convert the 38761 USD resistance into a new support, flipping its polarity onto the bullish side.

The BWAP 38400-38700 USD zone could be considered a short-term, fair support zone, whenever bitcoin trades above it. It could be thought of as a form of an anchor to decide whether BTCUSD is showing strength (above BWAP) or weakness (below BWAP) in the short-term spectrum.

The Momentum Bands analysis suggests that, technically, bitcoin still has got upwards room to rise into the gray High Band region of 39.8-40.5k USD. Especially, that this zone is backed in addition by the Level Line resistance at 40297 USD. The bandwidth 36208-40500 USD implies that this is the most probable volatility range for bitcoin for the next days.

Furthermore, BPRO Level Lines show resistances at:

45946
42928
40297

Meanwhile, BPRO Level Lines show supports at:

38761
36208

These levels could be anticipated to serve as level-to-level references. In other words, when one level is breached, the next one in the direction of the movement can be expected to act as the next “magnet”

LTF 1H:

The hourly chart shows a so-far-successful attempt of an upwards breakout above the main short-term resistance of 38600 USD. As long as this level is flipped into the support and the price action of bitcoin round-retests this area well, BTCUSD will have the chances of a follow-through to the upside into the 40000 USD resistance.

That being said, BTC is trading in the short-term resistance area, which seems to be being confirmed at the moment of writing, portrayed as a struggle to produce higher highs and higher hourly closes in an ascending manner. Instead, a congestion of upper candle shadows is present, which defines the short-term supply forces acting upon bitcoin. The failure to hold the support line may cause a cascade sell-off into the prior 37000 USD support region.

The other resistance areas presented in the chart with the help of BPRO BaseLine Wave Pivots are given at the 41600 USD and 44000 USD levels.

Bitcoin: Number of Active Addresses (168h Moving Average)

With referrence to my latest market report update, the on-chain acivity of addresses is reaching the yearly lows, whereas the short-term price action is upwards-oriented.

Naturally, note that this is 168h average, so it may not discount the intraday fluctations from today’s market movements well.

Yet, the on-chain weakness works against the price of bitcoin quite often. While it is not set in stone, it’s worth taking additional caution measures and avoid over-exposure to the risky plays.

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