Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (February 21 2022)
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The weekly chart continues within the prior range-bound movement between the 30k USD and 70k USD areas. After quite an ugly weekly close, the bitcoin’s price action is still trading below its 50-week average value of 47000 USD.
This long-term picture does not seem to favor any specific direction, other than sideways for now. I personally expect this chaotic horizontal chop to continue as long as BTCUSD does not reclaim the said 50-week mean. A proper weekly close or a monthly close through this resistance could add enough momentum into the market, so that bitcoin springs towards the psychological barrier of $50000. Until then, it’s expected to continue between the 30000 USD lows and the 50-week mean regions acting as support and resistance areas, accordingly.
The bottom indicator, Birbicator, presents a combination of a trend and momentum measures. As of now, the upwards momentum has slowed down in the medium-term perspective. It could be portrayed by the flattening and tightening Stochastic ribbon. The trend analysis coming from the TK histogram, which shows a relative distance of Tenkan and Kijun based oscillators, shows that BTCUSD is nearing a bullish crossover to confirm an upwards trend. Most likely, it would align well with a break above the 47000 USD resistance.
After a failure to hold the weekly lows and an ugly daily close, bitcoin seems to be testing a strong technical support area defined by several BPRO indicators in conjunction.
Firstly, BTCUSD is tagging Baseline Wave Pivot demand zone spreading between 37300 USD and 38300 USD levels, based on the advanced price action. If this region fails and bitcoin closes a day strongly below the said 37300 USD support, it gains on chances to go south towards the market lows in the 33-34k USD area. Otherwise, the major daily resistances defined by BPRO are given at $44800 and $66000.
The daily trend still has not confirmed a breakdown, which implies that not all is lost just yet against the bears.
The Momentum Bands give an expected range of volatility for bitcoin in the 34800 USD and 49200 USD boundaries. The Low Band suggests a volatility-based demand zone at 34800-37000 USD, which based on average volatility could be considered a good buying opportunity in this region, at least for the short-term. A clean violation of the floor could validate a volatility breakout to the downside and potential further downside implications.
The middaily chart gives a clear picture for who’s got the upper hand over the medium-term bitcoin market. It’s bears for now.
Per the BPRO indicator, CTF Trailer, the bitcoin bulls lost the upper hand with a breakdown beneath 41500 USD support. Since then, BTCUSD has remained under the control of the bears – as long as BTC does not get back above 42558 USD level (CTF Trailer Stop).
The BWAP block suggests that this price and volume backed zone at 39400-40200 USD is the main local supply region for short-term bitcoin movements. A close above this area could further imply in an attempt to reach and break through the said CTF Trailer Stop at 42558 USD.
Until the condition above is met, bitcoin remains more bearish than bullish and potentially ready for a retest into 33-34k USD lows region. It is, provided that Russia-Ukraine tensions escalate and more FUD news flow in.
The MTF chart shows a clean set of support and resistance levels defined and adjusted automatically by the BPRO Level Lines, aside from other indicators.
Clearly, BTCUSD has been remaining under the bearish influence, empowered by external FUD factors. This news play dictated by the mainstream media seems to add nothing but noise and chaos into the charts.
As of now, bitcoin is struggling to break above the local BWAP block resistance at the 39000-39400 USD zone. As long as this area is not reclaimed by the bulls, bitcoin is in danger of going lower into the next support area near 36000 USD.
BPRO Level Lines show resistances at:
BPRO Level Lines show supports at:
These levels could be anticipated to serve as level-to-level references. In other words, when one level is breached, the next one in the direction of the movement can be expected to act as the next “magnet”
The hourly chart presents the key pivotal levels and zones given by the BirbicatorPRO.
As of now, it seems that the main activity for bitcoin is taking place between the 37500 USD lows and the 40150 USD highs. Currently, bitcoin is trading in the middle zone between those extreme levels with a fake breakdown at the bottom.
More often than not, a bottom fakeout is a potential symptom of demand lining up for a potential bounce. Yet, this bounce or an upswing is not confirmed until a strong pump above the $40150 resistance.
Local demand region is set at 38100-38400 USD.
Personally, I don’t find this short-term chart to be supportive of safe trading. Instead, it involves a lot of noise induced by external factors like Russia-Ukraine tensions and the media narratives. None of those is within our control or the “technicality” of the market.
For the sake of keeping it safe more than sorry, I prefer to view the intraday price action as chaotic movements, coming more or less randomly in both directions, depending on which narrative is supported more at a given moment by the media. Technical analysis does not offer forecasting what the media are going to print in the headlines, sadly.
Bitcoin: Number of Active Addresses (168h Moving Average)
As glassnode explains, this on-chain metric is “the number of unique addresses that were active in the network either as a sender or receiver. Only addresses that were active in successful transactions are counted.”
Clearly, the wallet activity has declined sharply ever since bitcoin’s rejection at the 45000 USD highs. It is rather not supportive of a price increase. Instead, it more works in favor of the bears in the short-term spectrum of the dates.
That being said, ever since bitcoin peaked at around 69000 USD (for now), the wallet activity seems to be moving in sideways rather than a clear downwards trend, whereas the BTCUSD price dropped.
The fear saga continues, empowered by the external forces from the outside of the crypto market.
It seems that the Russia-Ukraine tensions are inducing more and more uncertainty and fear into the markets, globally. The risk-on assets, e.g. equities or cryptos seem to not tolerate that well in the presence of ever-changing narratives dictated by the mainstream media.
The extreme fear at 25 points historically have been proven to be better buying opportunity than it was for selling. I, naturally, expect no different this time.
The crowds are usually right in the middle of trends and usually wrong about anticipating the extremes and reversals. Remaining patient while getting early indications about the extreme sentiment changes could be source of positive returns over a period of time. Price action wise, bitcoin receives a lot of destructive noise.
Overall, both the course of BTCUSD and the sentiment seem to be circling back and forth in the same place. Rest might just be the noise to ignore.
As always, more details are revealed in the exclusive video reports.
Hope it all helps. God bless.
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