Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (February 16 2022)
The middaily chart with the most recent candlesticks displays a sequence of small-body candles forming a consolidation movement.
On the negative note, bitcoin seems to be trading near the short-term supply at around 45000 USD. The intraday price action does not seem to favor any specific direction. Every session spent under the resistance brings chances of downwards correction into the 36000-38000 USD region.
On the positive record, BTCUSD is trading high over the key prior resistances and so far confirming the upwards orientation of the market. Ever since breaking over the 3-month trend line, bitcoin has traded in the new upwards trend.
The way I read it, BTC is attempting to break out of the consolidation 41.7-45.7k USD with the base size of $4000. An upwards breakout would imply a target, based on the measured rule, nearing the psychological resistance at 50000 USD ($45700 + $4000 gives $49700 theoretical target). A follow-through to the upside is confirmed with a daily close above the 45700 USD level.
The BirbicatorPRO is confirming the bullish mode of the trend. The BWAP block, backed by price and volume, suggests a key support/resistance region at the 43500-44500 USD. A clean break-through could result in a further upwards continuation into the new highs.
The MTF chart shows a short-term bullishness per the CTF Trailer setup.
The bulls have re-gained the upper hand since the breakout above 43500 USD resistance. The short-term bullish concept is defended as long as BTCUSD does not close below the CTF Trailer Stop at 42158 USD.
The BWAP block shows a resistance at the 44-44.4k USD region. In case of a failure to reclaim above this zone, there is a chance of visiting the lower levels.
The Level Lines reveal that the most relevant short-term resistance is defined at the $45641 level.
BPRO Level Lines show supports at:
These levels could be anticipated to serve as level-to-level references. In other words, when one level is breached, the next one in the direction of the movement can be expected to act as the next “magnet”
The hourly chart displays BTCUSD hitting the local demand block defined by the BPRO (the orange box).
The most essential pivotal level is defined at the 43650 USD level, which has technically not been broken down with the most recent candle close. It seems that a clean close below the floor level at $43400 could trigger the stop loss orders into a cascade of sells or a flash dump into the 42300-42600 USD area, defined by the subsequent area indicated by the clean pivot lines in the orange.
Local resistance seems to be mainly concentrated at the $44250 level. A strong reclaim over that level seems to bring higher chances of BTCUSD continuing higher into the 49-50k USD region, eventually.
Bitcoin: Number of Active Addresses (50d Moving Average)
As the glassnode explains, this on-chain metric is defined as “the number of unique addresses that were active in the network either as a sender or receiver. Only addresses that were active in successful transactions are counted.”
In favor of the bulls, the 50-day mean is curving up, which means that the medium-term on-chain activity and congestion is heading north. It is potentially supportive of the price increase.
Short-term wise, the 7-day average shows relatively increasing activity while the price remains short-term sideways. It is, again, potentially supportive of further upwards trajectory.
Eventually, the charts tell the story as it is. Yet, more often than not, major swings in the markets come from the external factors. It is better to be safe than sorry in terms of not getting over exposed to the risky positions, as long as e.g. the Russia-Ukraine tensions fade away.
More details in the exclusive video report. Cheers and God bless.
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