Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (December 19 2022)
The weekly BTCUSD outlook suggests a rejected break attempt near the $17500 level.
After validating the resistance area again, BTC has remained around $16700, with a bearish advantage.
With the descending triangle formation, the breakout objective rests at $10500.
The 50-week resistance is at $27649 presently. Meanwhile, the 200-week average is at $24339. Both said levels could work as the long-term reference levels for long-term investors. They can be considered relevant anchors and reasonable price levels toward which the Bitcoin prices can gravitate sooner or later.
Significantly, there is a sharp 7-week correlation coefficient shift to the upside, as the value is close to the 0.0 level.
The middaily BTCUSD chart offers a deeper insight into the failed breakout pattern on top of the recent ascend.
Following the rejection above $17500 and the top overthrow, the failed patterns tend to perform better in the opposite directions than initially anticipated. For this reason, it is safer to expect the complete sideways pattern USD 15500-18400 to be re-distributive.
Still, the 200-day trend continues to descend, with no apparent signs of reversal. The mean-reversion resistance is at $20500. Therefore, BTC may not confirm any reversal setup sooner if it breaks successfully above the 20.5k USD resistance.
The MTF BTCUSD chart displays details of the top overthrow pattern and a more recent bearish flag formation; looking at the breakdown now.
Since the recent top contributed to creating a sideways environment, which is mean-reverting in nature, there is a good likelihood that BTCUSD will continue to decline until it reaches the range lows territory, near $15500.
Based on a measuring rule, the bear flag pattern paints the target to be at $15700, in proximity to the original range lows. This reassures the confluence effect and strengthens the $15500 area to work as a price magnet, as well as to work as a more vital support (more attention from traders)
Bitcoin: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)
“Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) is the difference between market cap and realized cap divided by market cap. Assuming that the latest coin movement is the result of a purchase, NUPL indicates the total amount of profit/loss in all the coins represented as a ratio. It could be interpreted as the ratio of investors who are in profit. Values over ‘0’ indicate investors are in profit and an increasing trend in value means more investors are beginning to be in profit. This phase indicates the increasing reason to take profit which leads to an increase in sell pressure.”
By studying the chart attached, traders may conclude that the current negative NUPL pattern is typical of the cyclical reversals from the past cycles. It may not necessarily translate into any immediate reversal. However, it proves that traders are fair to expect a botting process to be validated at any time, these days. It’s hard to guess the exact time and date of a major market twist – it’s like winning a lottery. If a trader is lucky to catch the peak or trough, good for them. But, let them try to catch it regularly, and they’ll blow up their accounts fast. Otherwise, what are the odds of winning the lottery time after time again? Arguably, not high. So, it makes sense to consider the current BTCUSD rates to be fairly attractive from the long-term investor’s point of view. Nevertheless, it does not mean the rates can not get any lower. Especially, when the market participants are pessimistic (fear & greed index at 29), and the miners are trading underwater.
In finance, it’s always better to be safe than sorry. Be ready for the worst, and hope for the best.
Caution is recommended.
Hope it helps.
Bitcoin Average Mining Costs
Fear & Greed Index
P.S. Mark 27th December in your calendars. The 5th anniversary of TBN is coming with huge release you don’t want to miss.