Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (August 7 2021)
The daily mean reversion I predicted at 29-30k levels is now complete around 45k levels. Once again with my technical analysis I proved that the crowds are always right in the middle of the trend but always wrong about the extremes. The more hate I got wherever I shared my 29-30k reversal opinions, the more likely I knew the reversal would come.
That’s how it works. Now that the mean reversion is complete, short term traders are suggested to slowly start taking profits right into the resistance. It’s possible to see overthrows/fakeouts into 45-47k region but longing now is rather poor risk/reward for short-term.
Moving averages suggest that we’re filling in the second resistance cluster from MA200 & aVWAP zone 42.6-44.6k, so it would make sense to see some local upcoming throwbacks to low 40000s or high 30000s. Trend locally is tiny bit over extended based on momentum and average deviation.
After the range breakout retest is confirmed with rounded bottom in 37-41k region, it unlocks the final boss resistance cluster 53-58k to come.
MTF chart is obviously bullish for it’s trend while the local supports are confirmed by Volume and to be found around:
These are the zones for reloading BTCUSD for those who missed out on my 29-32k call setups posted for exclusive subscribers. I’d more expect 41.3-40.6k demand block to hold as perfect technical breakout retest region while just in case it’s always worth having some bids in case of local FUD news e.g. US congress passing the NOT crypto-friendly bills with its negative results in next days.
Locally it is possible to see some aggressive fakeouts on top as we read the first signs of micro-euphoria coming from exactly the same people who sold in panic into sub 30k regions against any rationale presented by my analyses.
That is THE breakout of the range that I had been encouraging everybody to wait for the last 80 days. It’s been a really long wait but after I loaded 29-30k $300k of BTC to my long term bags with few low-leverages positions down there, it pays off already.
Once again, my macro analysis was confirmed to be correct.
Ratio at 0.53 showing healthy alignment between the price action and onchain analytics of Bitcoin. Yet another confirmatino of a healthy upside pullback into mid 40000s I predicted more than 2 months ago. Having said that, I still claim the top is NOT in and that we’ve not seen real euphoria stage that would peak and blow the market off on top. That’s yet to come in Q4 later this year imo following NUPL aggressive scale-out signals whenever NUPL ratio exceeds 0.75 with aggressive upside push. When that comes, Im cashing out all the crypto profits into other markets. Naturally, I will keep my premium members informed before it happens with numerous warnings. More insights unlocked for exclusive subcribers in #nc-video-report update.
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