Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (August 31 2020)
Local resistance cluster 12.5-12.8k. If broken and reclaimed above it’s most likely going right into 13-14k area and get past this towards 14.6k. Local rejection and ugly weekly close may get bitcoin a bit closer to 10.1-10.5k SUPER STRONG DEMAND ZONE area. Unless a fundamental unpredicted event appears – black swan, the chart is looking like a perfect consolidation based of price action analysis and momentum analysis, confirmed by directional divergence between Stochastic (local bear) and TK histogram (local bull), which more often than not indicates continuation of a larger scale market trend.
Daily following a form of a fractal of prior consolidation movements in past months and years, after which every single time there was a strong upside thrust coming not long after. All daily averages 50,100,200 are bullish and ascending which confirms the overall uptrend continuation and that dips are for buying. Hidden bullish divergence on momentum, backed by strong bullish momentum crossover near the oversold area adds even more certainty to MTF-HTF bullishness of bitcoin. And if that’s the case, then short-term dips are for buying. The larger the dip, the better buying opportunity it generates. Key long-term Supports: 11000, 10200, 9200.
Middaily tapping into local resistance area of MA50 backed by LTF supply zone as cluster of resistances 11700-11800. Once broken through, it may easily lead to the next resistance cluster aka MTF supply zone 12.1-12.5k. LTF demand zone as cluster of supports is located at 10.9-11.1k area and if broken through to the downside with a bearish fundamental FUD, this may lead further down to tapping into MTF demand zone of 10.2-10.4k, which is technically speaking quite unlikely to happen. Momentum is definitely strong and bullish for now with no signs of reversal.
Volume profile analysis clearly proves that local resistance of 11.7-11.8k area is the strongest one associated with the largest volume spikes which make it significant resistance. Once broken to the upside, the next and way weaker resistance is 12250. For now, despite bearish MA50&200 crossover, Price Action is being held above the MA cluster that works as a local support zone 11.5-11.7k that if broken may make bitcoin retrace back to 11.3-11.4k area.
Hourly analysis presents a local uptrend sustained locally above MA cluster. Local averages analysis shows that there has just been a bullish golden cross MA50/200, which should mean local upside continuation. If compared with institutional chart of CME bitcoin futures, there is a contango situation in which futures are priced more expensively than spot market usd. This brings short-term bullish arbitrage opportunities until the price stabilizes and becomes approximately equal across the exchanges. Spot price would most likely follow CME chart and break through the local mid-range 50% retracement resistance, which if reclaimed as a new support with successful breakout retest sequence, is going to unlock further upside continuation towards the range highs area of 12000s+. Local tiny exhaustion may be visible in the chart and momentum analysis yet it is supposed to have only short-term consequences. Optional throwback towards the MA support cluster 11.5-11.6k is going to generate short-term/intraday scalp buying opportunities. Make sure to visit #video-report channel for full picture understanding. 100k followers celebration starting this week on my twitter. It’s going to be the largest celebration ever. Huge things are coming. Stay tuned!
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