Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (August 24 2022)
The middaily chart displays an instance of a consolidation pattern, hoovering right over the range low support territory – when measured from the swing low from 25th-26th of July.
The wedge pattern breakdown has been validated by abnormal volatility burst, time spent outside the wedge, as well as the percentage rule. Potentially, there is a chance for an upwards pullback in the form of a breakout retest. If the retest fails to persist higher, and the price action of Bitcoin follows through to the downside and below 20500 USD, this may validate further declines in the direction of the June’s lows at 17500 USD.
Besides, the CTF Trailer remains on the bearish note and continues to display the main resistance at 23188 USD. Until this level is reclaimed by the bulls, the bears have the upper hand.
The medium-term outlook for Bitcoin prices suggests a contracting consolidation pattern, ranging between 20700 USD and 21700 USD.
As the volatility decreases, the pattern may have tendency to frame a coil pattern, which could be expected to break toward its hypothetical apex. Of course, it requires further confirmation that this pattern is an actual coil.
Otherwise, the BPRO Momentum Bands reveal a projected volatility range between the 20300 USD and 22500 USD levels. As long as BTC trades within the range, no factual trend may be detected reliably.
Furthermore, the BPRO Level Lines suggest that, while the main support is at 20194 USD, the resistances are as follows:
These levels may be traded also on a level-to-level basis. It means, that when there is a break through a Level Line, the next Level in the direction of the breakout becomes a valid price objective.
The hourly chart gives a deeper look inside the consolidation pattern, as it performs the sequence of lower highs, and higher lows.
Recently, a few marks of bullish divergences have been alerted, as BTC started moving sideways. While oftentimes it suggests oversold market conditions (on a short-term basis), it does not guarantee any immediate breakout or any specific direction. What validates the pattern completion is a proper breakout confirmation.
However, the context of the pattern may suggest a bit more chances for BTC to continue to move lower, due to the several cases of top failures.
A measured move to the downside would imply a 20000 USD level for a price objective, should the market break down.
P.S. Note increased risks potential as J. Powell, the FED’s chair, in Jackson Hole, later this week. Caution is advised.
Finally, the sentiment has worsened a bit, following the recent wedge breakdown.
Now, at 25 points on the scale, the sentiment among investors can be classified again as extreme fear.
Typically, the more extreme the fear environment becomes, or the stronger the herd’s opinion gets, the higher the chances for a contrary movement, and the better the opportunity for the contrarians to benefit from it.
While new lows may be expected within this bear market sequence, a short-term pullback upwards may be due for a release anytime soon.
P.S. Great news! https://twitter.com/crypto_birb/status/1562187004946825216?s=21&t=-jNzh-EYoX2Jv-IzaWJFO
That’s all for now. Hope it helps. God bless.