Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (August 23 2021)
Weekly chart is quite simple to me. BTCUSD is showing two major volume-based supports to be 33297 and 41960. The only resistance I can derive of price action from the peak in May, is the resistance cluster 52924-59979 which is where Im expecting local distribution to occur. Im not crossing out a possibility of over throwing ATH 65k before any bigger correction although more likely, the consolidation/triangle pattern is to unfold throughout the next weeks of Q3.
For these reasons, the support is 41960 and resistance approximately is 53k-60k.
Here’s the triangle pattern for reference:
The daily chart shows demand zone between 39.3k and 42.3k based on volume-averaged prices. Supply territory remains at 53-58k, which Im personally targeting as the next area of interest of bears. The closer to the zone BTCUSD gets, the more likely the selloff and retracement are.
For those who engage regularly and read through my reports, webinars, articles, my personal trading channel updates, etc. during the crash time in May 2021, I was telling you about the need to establish lower high somewhere in the 50000s. Almost 4 months later, here we are over 50k levels.
Local throwback towards MA200 is possible at 46k so remember to take some profits as long as we stay over 50k and keep your bids ready in case of local 10-20% corrections.
Similarly, middaily chart is showing two main support clusters: LTF 45413-48173 and MTF at 41172-42593. Price action based resistances are 52924 and 56048 and the latter is where I’d expect local top if not over ATH.
We’ve seen +72% recovery so far for BTCUSD and that type of upside volatility usually does NOT come without any sort of correction. Momentum is having large growth space on weekly chart but on 1d, 12h, 4h it’s already heavily overbought. It doesn’t mean immediate drop is coming but rather read that as a warning sign from market that you should actively think of securing profits while it’s soaring.
From my bottom calls where I got so much hatred, salt, toxicity from people, we’re already in 70% profit off the lows. Remember, the more aggressively the crowds are defending their extreme thesis, the closer to the reversal we are.
I still read this entire move up as the first sign of relief since the crash and disbelief 2.0 as I referred to that 2-3 months ago. Uneducated herds still aim for sub 20k giving multiple funny reasons they have no idea about. I’ve seen this pattern many times before with same results. They have got trapped and now are in their psychological denial, afraid to admit their mistakes.
MTF chart represents the said results of failed falling wedge pattern, which are following the expectations I had mentioned before quite well. Failed patterns tend to perform better than the regular patterns in terms of trend longevity and generated returns.
Volume analysis suggests that PoC (Point of Control), the arbitrary point of the volume profile for the last leg up is to be found at 49k. This means that when the control is lost at this level from bulls, the next local target is VWAP level at 47.8k which is quite in alignment with MA50 support at 47.2k. For this reason, where two averages seem to direct at similar levels/zones, one can read it as a support cluster and the entire area between 47.2k and 47.8k should work as a demand / reload zone for the short-term swing traders.
MA200 provides support at 42.1k and will act as definite support in case the 47.2-47.8k zone is lost. There’s rather not much action in between expected so it may be some form of a quick flash crash for 10-20% decline to ensure delusional bears that they’re right for targeting 10k BTCUSD levels (which they’re wrong about for now) and scare again retails giving them flashbacks from 80-day long extreme fear environment in 30-43k range.
The technical nature of the range chart pattern and the measured rule suggest that the expected target of the range breakout is ~55k. That’s where we’re aiming unless we see another round of orchestrated FUD out of nowhere followed by the mentioned news-driven flash crash.
LTF chart displays three main supports level for reference: 50126 (local aVWAP), 49833 (previous high, now support that must hold), 48289. If we see a strong, ugly 4h or 1D candle close below 49833, then next target suggested by volume is 48289, which eventually if lost leads to the mentioned 47k floor and/or 42.1k.
While targeting upwards expansion, most likely to 53-55k zone, it’s worth locking in profits – the more, the closer to the said area BTCUSD gets as that’s where local top is to be expected.
As mentioned before, if we see an actual over throw and weekly close over April’s ATH for BTCUSD, it already will unfold the range and suggest upside continuation towards 90-120k zone. How does it connect with 1h chart? Local sideways movement will have soon its unfolding. If it’s upwards, we get to 53-55k area fast and can expect local throwbacks. If we fail to hold 48289, then low 47000s or even 42.1k should be expected.
In trading and technical analysis, everything is conditional. The upwards trend lasts as long as there’s buyers > sellers advance. If the supply starts taking over the demand in the strength, the trend gets wobbly, vulnerable and more likely to reverse.
The market is a battlefield for bulls and bears. Whoever is stronger, decides about the market direction.
Below 30k on fear climax, I was telling to expect 50000s lower high retest. Now that we’re over 50k, Im saying watch out, take your profits as we go and don’t invest with poor risk/reward. Compare what you can win vs what you can lose.
Crowds are always right in the middle of trend and always wrong at the extremes. Extreme fear on the scale at 79 points so complete polarity change vs last month’s extreme fear of 22.
When it was the most worth buying into extreme fear for weeks / months, now it’s wise to keep locking the profits locally.
As that’s the first sign of relief for retail bulls since the crash, I dont rather expect the market to blow off through ATH right away. I’d rather encourage to see one last round of fearful environment to shake out weak hands (perhaps 42k?) to unlock the liquidity pool for the whale longs / institutions that will take us to the final round of this bull run: 5th wave of Elliot towards 90-120k or higher.
The ratio is at 0.58 with no local signs of divergence (compare with bearish divergence on top). The market for this reason is not showing any symptoms of any major reversal/crash coming. It’s liquidity pool in the building, which later will be used by giga-whales and institutions to dump all their insane profits on the market. The higher NUPL leads, the bigger the crash will eventually be – bear market. Also, kind reminder about tomorrow’s free newsletter coming out where you’ll be able to get special one-time discounted coupons to use for a very limited time to prolong/renew/purchase your exclusive membership with us. I dont need to force anybody to join, I let my 30k bottom calls speak for themselves. Sign up for free newsletter and the coupons are coming your way in tomorrow’s release to your mailbox. Claim your free copy with the link below.