Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (August 18 2021)

HTF 1D:

The daily chart has not changed too much since my full weekly report update from Monday. It’s locally consolidating between 44k and 48k after local fakeout on top. As mentioned in my video report too, there’s a chance that support block 2 at 38-40k region provides ultimate demand zone in case support block 1 fails at 42.2-45.5k region.

Perfect price action scenario would be to have the MTF, 80day+ range breakout RETEST with rounded bottom around 40-42k territory. This would be the pure textbook technical analysis case study.

Overall, there’s high congestion of supports right beneath the current price action so I would under no circumstances get overly bearish. The way I see it is just MTF bulls waiting for local throwback to reload MTF longs on the classical confirmed pattern breakout. If that’s the case, then the next targets expected are inside the resistance block defined by price action and volume profile 53-58k.

Since I mentioned on Monday and suggested urgently to book some profits in 47-48k area, BTCUSD has seen already -10% declines. Nobody’s ever gone broke for taking profits.

MTF 4H:

MTF picture seems to have seen its rising wedge breakdown. Currently trading right over its local aVWAP at 44k as local support. When the breakdown retest around 46-47k comes, it may be another chance to take some profits off the table with great risk/reward low-timeframe wise. There’s clean gap between the support blocks. Once we see a daily or weekly close below 44k, it seems that the next support area is right away 40k.

For this reason, one may expect some form of a flash crash with range 40-42k to follow and form rounded bottom. There’s a threat of a flashcrash, additionally backed by FUD from Afghanistan, which is yet another FUD/potential black swan event cooking after Israel – Palestine conflict expansion.

The overall uptrend is nowhere near finished gauging by trend and momentum of high timeframes. So any local declines should rather serve as a buy-the-dip opportunities rather than short selling actions imo.

BITCOIN: NUMBER OF ACTIVE ADDRESSES

As glassnode explains, it’s the number of unique addresses that were active in the network either as a sender or receiver. Only addresses that were active in successful transactions are counted.

The chart displays price action vs 7-day average of active addresses which despite bouncing off the lows by 15%, it’s clearly lagging behind BTCUSD price bounce of almost 70%. Of course, moving average is naturally lagging behind the actual records and hence creates a form of a confirmation filter and stronger signal once triggered. Nevertheless, there’s clear difference between 15% bounce and 70% bounce which suggests that the onchain wise BTCUSD is still having room to grow locally.

Also, note the reversal bullish divergence on the bottom. Momentum divergence wins again! More insights available to exclusive members in my today’s video report in #nc-video-report channel.

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