Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (August 10 2022)

By Cryptobirb

HTF 12H:

The middaily chart has seen a local burst upon the CPI prints for July.

As recorded, the YoY inflation change was brought at 8.5%, whereas the expected rate was at 8.7%.

While it may not necessarily be the most weighted factor for Bitcoin traders, the short-term price action seems to have reacted quite positively to such a news.

Oftentimes, event-driven price shocks tend to retrace back to their pre-news levels.

However, there seems to be a little bit more of fundamental relief following based on easier expectations in the near-term future.

The CTF Trailer maintains the bullish tone, as long as BTC continues to close the days above the Stop level $22586.

Unless a breakdown beneath the stop threshold comes up, the BTC prices may be heading higher, driven by a bit less bearish expectations from the market participants.

A clean break above the 24300 USD level may also prove additional level of validation for the currently lasting bullish setup.

MTF 4H:

The MTF chart sparks bits of hope among traders, as they anticipate if a major breakout had already happened.

With BTC trading at the 24000 USD whereabouts there has not been any major volatility breakout, just yet.

At least, according to the BPRO Momentum Bands, which define a regular volatility region to be at 22-25k USD.

As long as BTC trades within the range given, no breakout can be taken for granted, as it would immediately be a subject to a local failure, and a mean-reverting move in the opposite direction, leaving losses on a trading account.

LTF 1H:

The hourly chart displays yet another leg up within a larger sideways pattern.

Multiple failures on the top breakouts have nothing but strengthened the directionlessness (if there is such a word) of current Bitcoin movements.

It rather, hence, supports the views of those who choose to remain cautious, and not celebrate too early.

Until the 24300 USD resistance is breached successfully, on an abnormal volatility, and a close-through on the daily time frame, BTC may be in danger of a mean-reverting move to the downside and toward the 22500 USD area, or lower.

It is, because failed patterns tend to perform better in the opposite direction than anticipated based on the breakout itself.

BTC needs more breakout confirmation, in order for the short-term bulls to feel any major, credible relief.

FEAR/GREED INDEX:

As the Bitcoin prices move back and forth, inside a sideways pattern, the sentiment seems to oscillate around similar index levels.

The index now shows 31 points on the scale, out of 100. This, hence, can be classified under the “fear” category, again.

The worse the sentiment, the better the contrarian opportunity to trade counter the trend, profitably.

A lot of traders are already late to the party, for missing out on the bottom entries. Naturally, it’s impossible to catch the market bottoms, continuously. But, many will feel the pressure and FOMO to join on the speeding train of prices, after recovering over 35% off the floor pattern.

Without a dedicated system, the same mistakes shall be populated among traders. It is, for investors are subject to behavioral biases and acting upon them, spontaneously. It may often lead to ruin.

If want to learn, how to avoid devastating losses, I’ve prepared this free comprehensive thread on my twitter account – see the link below, then give it a read, and share around.

Hope it helps. God bless.