Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (August 05 2020)
Middaily closed a bullish candle with the actual close around the very top of the entire session which makes it bullish shaven top candlestick. As a result, the high was easily broken on the open of currently ongoing middaily session and continued upwards tapping the high of 11730. As you already know, bitcoin market reacts to flash dumps with lots of liquidation in a way that I call PTSD. If there comes a very sudden and drastic movement, it leaves many people with crashed plans and rationality, that often makes them irrational and much less predictable. TA is about the people. This means that after such big movement, it takes time for the market (the people) to recover and come back to full rationality so that the market can become fully “technical” again. With that in mind, momentum is curving up with a bullish cross aligned with advancing TK histogram. Let the session close around 11600 and we could anticipate tapping 11850-11900 or even the area of range highs at 12000-12100. Macro scale is super bullish for bitcoin, so expect any larger dips to be bought up naturally. For now price remains in a form of consolidation between the range extremes: low of 10500 and high of 12100, with midrange level at 11300. As long as it stays above 11300 you don’t short it at least until range highs. Analogically, when we close middaily below mid range 11300, range lows retest is more on the table too, so can apply longs around 10500-10700 area.
Hourly presented with the range interpretation. Local hourly support is 11280 and once broken down I could expect more downsides towards 10900 or 10600s. Local resistance is based on pre-breakdown level that flipped into resistance at 11880. Do not long into 11800-12000, unless breaks out to the upside then long breakout retest as classical technical analysis would suggest. Analogically, do not short the support of range lows unless breakdown retest. Local momentum in overbought so sooner or later I would expect a throwback down to 11400-11500 levels that can get nice entries for intraday/short-term longs at breakout RETEST of the midrange towards the range highs. With all that in mind, remember this consolidation is about market recovering the rationality after PTSD of the dump that left many liquidated. It takes time until market becomes “efficient” again. More in #video-report channel for you guys.
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