Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (April 9 2022)
The middaily chart has closed two consecutive candlesticks below the prior support of $42800. This implies underlying weakness, for now. Let us study it in more details.
Firstly, BTCUSD has been trending down ever since breaking below key CTF Trailer support at 45000 USD. Such a breakdown validated an upper bearish vote in the market, which implies that the bears have re-gained the control over the market, at least temporarily.
The price action continues to take a stairway down with a series of lower highs and lower lows, clearly classifying this sort of movement under the category or a downwards trend.
The CTF Trailer Stop rests at $44685, which gives a clear line in the sand for the level that needs to be reclaimed by the bulls, in order to win the control back. Until then, bitcoin seems more vulnerable and in danger of retesting the lower levels, closer to $40000.
The Momentum Bands imply a theoretical range for BTCUSD to be at 40.3-49.6k USD. While BTC is trading in the lower end of the range, there is still downwards risk of retesting the bottom of the volatility range.
The Level Lines also show a strong technical support at $39158, which is likely to be hit – unless the CTF Trailer Stop $44685 is broken to the upside.
The MTF chart shows a clean sequence of consecutive bearish candlesticks with no symptoms of reversal ongoing, so far.
The BPRO Wave Pivots display clean levels and areas of supports and resistances.
Arguably, bitcoin is hoovering right over a pivot-based support region of $42000, which if broken leaves a lot of space for further declines to as low as the next BPRO based 4h support line at 38100s USD. It shows an importance of the $42000 support region, hence.
On the resistance side, there is $43200, which clusters with the entire area up to $44000. For this reason, I would account the entire zone $43200-$44000 to be of one resistance cluster. Above it, there is $45700, as well as 46.5-47.2k USD region.
The hourly line chart shows the amount of indecision portrayed in most recent noise of sideways trajectory.
After a local breakdown below $43000, bitcoin attempts to build a base in the BWAP support block region of 42.3-42.5k USD.
So far, BTC has resisted to break above the baseline – 20-period average, which shows the short-term “fair” price of bitcoin, and serves as a reference point for traders. Analyzing the slope of the mean curve, one can record for a flat trajectory over the most recent sessions, which stands for lack of momentum or a slow-down of the selling pressure.
As such, BTCUSD does not flash any symptoms of strong reversal pattern and as of now it more looks as the market taking a breath before another leg down. Unless a rapid strength indication is recorded, bitcoin risks falling lower.
Furthermore, BPRO Level Lines show resistances at:
The support is marked at $41822.
These levels could be anticipated to serve as level-to-level references. In other words, when one level is breached, the next one in the direction of the movement can be expected to act as the next “magnet”
The sentiment worsens and the fear strikes back – again!
Now at 30 points on the scale, it’s another rendition of the fear saga.
The market sentiment flips back to the pessimistic side and one may conclude it comes with an overall conviction, that the market is “bound” to fall and crash.
Naturally, it’s impossible to predict future and the past performance can never be a guarantee of future performance. Yet, there is some predictive power to the fear/greed index fluctuations, among other market indicators.
Historically, fear brings better buying opportunities than selling. And this is the way I see it. It certainly does not allow to time a perfect reversal entry, but it does show when the market is valued as “cheap” on the contrarian basis.
To learn more, catch up with my yesterday’s webinar with full analysis of crypto among other financial markets.