Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (April 6 2022)

HTF 12H:

The middaily chart has lost its local support at around 44300 USD amid equities falling ahead of today’s FOMC minutes (6pm UTC) regarding the balance sheet rundown and further tightening policy.

Technically speaking, BTC has just made a lower low following a lower high, which classifies the move off the highs around 48000 USD as a technical downwards trend, provided that the session closes below the support level.

The BPRO indicates further downwards advantage held by the bears since losing 45000s USD a few days ago. The bears have been in control over the market with the bulls having the lower hand.

The CTF Trailer Stop at $46613 is the main invalidation level now for the bears and the resistance above which the bulls re-gain the upper vote. As long as this level is not reclaimed, the BPRO implies further downwards unfolding of the price action.

MTF 4H:

The MTF chart implies BTC struggling to defend essential support region at the edge of short-term trend reversal to the downside.

The BPRO analysis suggests that BTCUSD is currently testing volatility-based lows of the range projected by the Momentum Bands. An ugly breakdown below the $44200 level with a close below increases chances of a stronger move to the downside with more liquidations and fireworks. The High Band projects resistance area at 47.5-47.9k USD, backed by The Level Line resistance.

The BWAP resistance is located at 45-45.3k USD and it is backed both by the price and volume. Hence, it can be considered the most relevant near-term resistance to defeat on the bulls’ side, which if reclaimed can add more ease to reaching back higher regions.

Furthermore, BPRO Level Lines show resistances at:

47685
45912
45093

Meanwhile, BPRO Level Lines show supports at:

43313
41687
36640

These levels could be anticipated to serve as level-to-level references. In other words, when one level is breached, the next one in the direction of the movement

LTF 1H:

The hourly chart shows quite a lot of technical weakness on the intraday basis which doesn’t seem to show any clean symptoms of reversal to the upside.

Despite BTCUSD locally is printing long lower shadows in the candlesticks chart which represents the demand side of the market. These candlesticks are backed by short-term volume based box at 44000-44200 USD raising hope for the bulls and short-term reversal. As long as this is not confirmed by breaching 45000 USD resistance back again, BTC is at the edge of further declines into the $42000 support region with not so much of support on the way down, as it may seem.

Based on the BPRO Wave Pivots, there is quite a lot of resistance above current levels for bitcoin to overcome. With local support at 43700 USD, the resistances are as follows: 45-45.4k USD, 46.4-46.9k USD, 47.6k USD.

Bitcoin: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)

As CryptoQuant explains: “Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) is the difference between market cap and realized cap divided by market cap. Assuming that the latest coin movement is the result of a purchase, NUPL indicates the total amount of profit/loss in all the coins represented as a ratio. It could be interpreted as the ratio of investors who are in profit. Values over ‘0’ indicate investors are in profit and an increasing trend in value means more investors are beginning to be in profit. This phase indicates the increasing reason to take profit which leads to an increase in sell pressure.”

Currently, at around 0.46 ratio value represents no extreme evaluation in terms of how long-term trend of bitcoin is oversold or overbought. The way I see it, BTC has not seen the NUPL peak during this bull market just yet, which potentially leaves more upside room for growth. Current NUPL levels were also seen when BTC was trading at 50k USD in the most recent history.

That being said, there does not seem to be much of divergence in support of either bulls or bears. It sees quite well aligned with the price action in terms of directional convergence. This could be considered healthy or default status of the market, when comparing technicals and on-chain aspects.

That’s all for today. Hope it helps. God bless.

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