Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (April 4 2022)

By Cryptobirb

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HTF 1M:

The monthly close has brought not much of a spectacular move in either direction. Instead, the market observed a lot of both-sided uncertainty between the lows of $37000 and the highs of $48000.

The candlestick formation is a high-wave spinning top, with a longer lower shadow, which represents the demand side of the market. To me, it suggests that the demand side was eventually stronger and won the battle, forcing the bears the give up their safe territory below 40000 USD region.

The BPRO CTF Trailer implies that ever since October 2021 the market has remained more bullish than bearish with a strong flat support on the monthly time frame at $40641. As long as this level is supported and BTC closes no monthly session below this valid line in the sand, then bitcoin bull market is safe to continue.

The BWAP resistance block reaches as high as $49000, and a monthly close above this level could trigger new ATH, in my opinion.

Historically, since 1950 April returns the best performance of any month in any year on average. This implies that the seasonality is on the bullish side and favors. It is fair to expect a bit of upwards relief in the markets, which could be potentially promising for bitcoin to close April higher than the March candle.

HTF 1W:

The weekly chart seems to show a lot of confluence with the monthly indications.

The BPRO CTF Trailer shows the main resistance to be at $49100s, and a close above potentially validates upwards continuation into the range highs of 70000 USD.

Price action wise, BTC has brought a higher high and a proper breakout two weeks ago, bringing a significant breakout thrust through the main consolidation resistance to date.

That being said, the weekly time frame is yet to escape the bearish effects of the corrections of last months. The bears are still controlling the market, as long as BTC keeps closing weeks below $49100s.

On another note, BTCUSD vs SPX correlation has soared to 0.92 for its correlation coefficient on the 7-week basis. This implies very strong connection between bitcoin’s movements and stock market. Any sharp twist on equities side can impact bitcoin in the same manner, bullish or bearish.

Finally, for the first time in a while, BTCUSD has breached 50-week average and established last week’s trading mostly above it. It’s very promising sign for potential upwards continuation coming from underlying strength and momentum.

HTF 1D:

The daily chart seems to have been being supported well by the 20-day baseline average.

After printing higher high in the chart around $48000, bitcoin approved a breakout with abnormal volatility marks to the upside. Since then, it’s continued moving sideways within the highs and the range lows of $44000. This short-term consolidation may appear to be more of continuation than distribution, should the 45700 USD baseline support hold.

Otherwise, the CTF Trailer Stop is set at $43188, which if broken will admit the higher vote the daily bears.

HTF 12H:

The middaily chart represents a short-term indecision pattern.

The bears have re-gained the control over the bulls after losing $45300 support. The CTF Trailer Stop is now set at $47150 and as long as the bulls do not manage to close a day through this level, bitcoin is a subject to further consolidation or downwards-oriented retracement. A clean break above brings higher chances of BTCUSD reaching 50000 USD resistance.

If that is the case, then bitcoin may search for support somewhere closer to 40-43k USD regions, which would not be in favor of bullish momentum. It would simply erase big chunk of the momentum which has already been built behind the breakout above $46000.

The BWAP support block is at 45.3-46.3k USD and an ugly close beneath could imply further unfolding of the short-term pattern to the downside.

MTF 4H:

The MTF chart represents a narrow range-bound movement with a number of traps/noise on both sides of the consolidation.

A clean support defined by the BPRO is at $45000, whereas the resistance is set at $46700. A clean break below of above these levels, accordingly, can cause a more explosive movement in the direction of the breakout. The upper candle shadows standing out above the resistance mark the swing failures, which make me think that there are high chances of BTCUSD to trade at $45000 in the next hours.

An ugly loss of 44500 USD support can result in further downwards correction into the $42000 support.

On the other hand, the most bullish scenario assumes that the bulls reclaim the resistance at $47800, which so far has been continuously rejected.

LTF 1H:

The hourly chart shows a clean set of the most significant technical levels to pay attention to, if you are as short-term trader.

Namely, the resistances are given by the BPRO Level Lines at $45758, and $47023. If one resistance is breached, the next one unlocks as the next potential magnet or anchor.

On the support side, the market favors $44348 as the main pivotal level, should $45758 resistance remains not reclaimed.

FEAR/GREED INDEX:

Clearly, the sentiment remains pretty much neutral over the course of the last few days.

Not much change on the sentiment side implies that there might be not much change on the technical side in terms of any significant moves behind the scenes, favoring either bulls or bears.

At 52 points on the index scale, the market has managed to well recover the past 4-month-long uncertainty and fear period, which is more promising for the bulls for several reasons. Namely, the late shorts into the low-mid $30000s were trapped and already covered/liquidated in major part. This often aligns well with a sort of disbelief status of the market.

This, combined with the fact that “trend is your friend” implies a significant turn in investors psychology, which could arugably add conviction and momentum to the bullish side.

The way I see it, the market (if undisturbed by Russia-Ukraine war escalation, nuclear bombs, etc. which charts can not predict) is taking a quick breath before further upwards continuation waves come up. This seems to be somewhat aligned with the sentiment conditions.

Hope this helps. I’m glad to be back after my surgery. Thanks for all the prayers and good wishes. God bless.

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