Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (April 30 2022)
HTF 12H:
The middaily chart continues to move chaotic price action of bitcoin with little to no follow-through on the underlying time frames. The noise factor is present strongly.
The CTF Trailer maintains the bearish advantage. The bears hold the upper hand in the market for as long as BTCUSD keeps closing candles below the Stop level at $41684. A successful breach and close outside this level to the upside would allow the bulls to re-gain the control over the market.
The BWAP block points toward 38.5-38.9k USD as the main area backed both by price and volume factors. It validates for this region to be of special technical importance and can be considered demand level, which if lost then BTCUSD is in danger of breaking much lower.
The middaily chart continues to move chaotic price action of bitcoin with little to no follow-through on the underlying time frames. The noise factor is present strongly.
The CTF Trailer maintains the bearish advantage. The bears hold the upper hand in the market for as long as BTCUSD keeps closing candles below the Stop level at $41684. A successful breach and close outside this level to the upside would allow the bulls to re-gain the control over the market.
The BWAP block points toward 38.5-38.9k USD as the main area backed both by price and volume factors. It validates for this region to be of special technical importance and can be considered demand level, which if lost then BTCUSD is in danger of breaking much lower.
The divergence system remains skewed toward overextended move to the downside. These low momentum conditions do not seem to be favorable for the bears, or the bulls, as the market continues to trade in a narrow pattern. A break below 37000 USD may cause a cascade of further selloffs.
MTF 4H:
The MTF chart shows great involvement of directionless noise in the market, which does not promote either side of the market as of now.
Instead, BTCUSD chops around with lower highs, higher lows, then higher highs and lower lows, interchangeably with no consensus. As long as the market continues to move within the defined price range anchored at 37.7-40.8k USD zone, there will be no conclusive decision for the market direction.
A clean break outside 40.8k USD could add a bit more fuel for the upwards rally in the near-term. Otherwise, a break and close below the said 37.7k USD support may lead to further downside escalation.
The main support is defined by the BPRO at $38061. The level is considered valid for as long as bitcoin keeps closing sessions over it.
Furthermore, BPRO Level Lines show resistances at:
46098
44604
42892
40220
The MTF chart shows great involvement of directionless noise in the market, which does not promote either side of the market as of now.
Instead, BTCUSD chops around with lower highs, higher lows, then higher highs and lower lows, interchangeably with no consensus. As long as the market continues to move within the defined price range anchored at 37.7-40.8k USD zone, there will be no conclusive decision for the market direction.
A clean break outside 40.8k USD could add a bit more fuel for the upwards rally in the near-term. Otherwise, a break and close below the said 37.7k USD support may lead to further downside escalation.
The main support is defined by the BPRO at $38061. The level is considered valid for as long as bitcoin keeps closing sessions over it.
Furthermore, BPRO Level Lines show resistances at:
46098
44604
42892
40220
These levels could be anticipated to serve as level-to-level references. In other words, when one level is breached, the next one in the direction of the movement
LTF 1H:
The hourly chart continues to trade within a narrow range-bound movement between the local boundaries.
The rectangle pattern moves inside the 38.5-38.7k USD range, which seems to be relatively compressed. Typically, a period of price compression tends to be followed by more volatile periods after BTC breaks out toward either side. Such a narrow price action results in clustering of protective stops on both sides of the pattern. As the protective stops accumulate as the pattern develops, the more “explosive” cascade of liquidations would occur when the breakout happens.
Such a breakout could ignite a rally to the upside towards the main Wave Pivot resistance at $40300, if the breakout occurs to the upside. Otherwise, a downwards break could trigger a cascade of selloffs into the 35000 USD support.
Caution is advised.
FEAR/GREED INDEX
The sentiment continues on the pessimistic side of the speculators’ expectations.
Now, at 20 points of the scale, the sentiment readings point towards extreme fear indication, as the fear intensifies and becomes more and more polarized.
It is a case study of trading psychology applied. As the directionless range develops, inexperienced traders tend to lose hope sooner than the pattern resolves, which is not rationale. The result is, that bitcoin continues trading flat and the people become hopeless, inadequatly to the price action readings.
That’s why, historically speaking, contrarian decisions for searching for buying opportunities where the extreme pessimism intensifies could return positive rewards over the time.
More details in my yesterday’s webinar – catch the link below.
God bless!
