Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (April 26 2021)
Weekly closed in quite an ugly manner below the short-length baseline of BPRO. Should current week close bearish as well, BPRO will flash the first sell signal ever since November 2020 and it will be of insane significance. Still, no bear market reversal recorded. Although, the entire BTCUSD situation starts to remind more and more the price action setup from July 2017, which was followed by few-month-long sideways/corrective trend to finally mark blow-off top in December that year. Situation may be similar this time provided that the sell signal arrives. Until then, BWAP support is located at 42.3k, while the main resistance of baseline is at 61.4k.
Daily marked a major bounce right off the VWAP trendline support after a series of long-lower-shadow days showing the demand beneath 50000 level. BTCUSD on daily with default trend settings is still on the bearish side, while we could expect some sort of a mean reversion pullback towards 60k. Breaker High level at 62076 is needed to be broken and reclaimed by bulls in order to ensure bullish continuation towards 70k and 90k levels. Until that happens, local BWAP support aligns at 43k, while the lower VWAP trendline level is set at 37600s. Those are the levels that serve as significant supports from the long-term point of view.
Middaily bounced off long-range bottom volatility band inside the demand zone area marked in one of my recent webinars. Momentum was heavily oversold as mentioned multiple times in the past days so it was a matter of time until we saw a proper bounce reply from bulls. Solid middaily close after 10%+ candle following a fake breakdown on the prior candle. Current bounce seems to be following mean reversion principle aiming 56000s. Volatility analysis points that upper resistance range is 63-64k which marks supply zone for current price action and could be expected as a sell-off area. From the price action point of view, key level for BTCUSD is 60k and until this one is reclaimed price action is locally bearish. Im still fully tethered on my short-term holdings and waiting until BPRO flashes buy back. Breaker High at 61013 is essential resistance level to reclaim for bulls and until that happens, BTCUSD is short-term bearish to neutral at best. In case of a sudden volatility breakout from a black swan event or certain news-driven pump, resistances to look at are: 68264, 75598; while the supports are: 44569, 37235.
MTF picture had just seen a steep decline measuring 26% decrease. Despite it’s still a part of a bigger low-momentum sideways movement lasting for 2 months already, the volatility is really big and – for most traders – hard to manage. BPRO flashed buy before the major breakout while local resistance comes at BWAP level of 55800. If BTCUSD breaks and successfully. tests this level (with daily close above it), it would bring an upside breakout and could potentially result in upside continuation towards 60-63k area. Before that happens, I’d still expect at least one mean reversion throwback towards low 50000s as the baseline suggests the average price is 48700s. Key level for short-term bulls is 63222 and in order to break towards 70k and beyond, this level must be reclaimed with a weekly candle close above that level. Volatility bands suggest the price action will trade between 42.4k and 56k in the next days.
Hourly sessions formed a double bottom pattern which was followed by an upside breakout right into volatility-based supply area between short- and long-range bands 53-55.6k. Local downtrend was broken and in order to continue expanding towards high 50000s, BTCUSD must NOT break back below the trendline and baseline. Locally, BTCUSD may resist at 55k BWAP level while the key Breaker High level is at 61029. Baseline support is at 49.2k and as long as BTCUSD is trading above this level in the next hours, it is relatively “safe” for now. I would expect breakout retest over the double bottom pattern at 50-51k. Intraday throwback may be a bit deeper than expected as its still part of big low-momentum movement clueless about direction. Following my own trading strategy, Im very thorough about it and not taking side trades on any other timeframes than 12h default BPRO setup, which works best for me.
NUPL has presented quite a massive ratio decrease down to 0.61 which is lowest since January 2021. Note the overall similarity between these days and same days 4 years ago. It’s very similar stage of the bull market in my opinion which leaves limited time ahead to distribute and realize your profits. I keep moving my funds effectively, gradually and surely into other markets, such as real estate, commodities (beautiful BCOM GSCI charts), hard assets, currencies to ensure I secure most of my big profits off this bull market. Whenever NUPL ration goes over 0.75, this will mark euphoria in the market and final blow-off top formation under construction. This will be my aggressive withdrawal time from the crypto funds. Kind reminder to sign up and book your limited seat at fourteen day free trading congress which starts in seven days from now. Only those who sign up will be able to participate at the full rate. Seats are filling up extremely fast so don’t sleep on the signups. Link attached below. Go for it.
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P.S. today 7pm UTC I’ll host a special livestream directly on
TWITTER SPACES (new function available with your latest app update). To enter, just tune in at that time into fleet updates or my twitter profile and click to enter the
TWITTER SPACE. I will discuss about BTCUSD and its potential multi-month-long corrective movement. Must not miss this. Hear you there and I’ll let some of you speak as well