Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (April 12 2021)
Weekly candle closed with tiny upper candle shadow which confirms that recent weeks have been successfully rejecting 60k+ area. Volatility is very narrow clearly due to small candles. After every less volatile period there comes a major volatile period. For that reason we could expect BTCUSD to show off some fireworks for the upcoming volatility. Volatility means risk to be managed. It’s wise to take at least some profits on already profitable positions just to make sure you don’t give it back to the market entirely in case of sudden military conflict or other unpredicted event, which would make global markets react in a bearish way. Price action wise, BTCUSD has been hovering around the baseline although still no bearish signal flashed ever since 16k buy signal. Weekly BWAP support is at 41700. Key level to be reclaimed by bulls is Breaker High at 62809. If we see a candle close on the weekly over that level, the upside expansion towards R3 97355 should be expected. Until then the supports are: 49619, 41454, 36772. Upside resistances are following: 75999, 84165, 97355.
Daily picture has one major concern that stops BTCUSD from explosive upside move imo. It is that it keeps closing days below default length baseline average with candles being full of intraday rejections. It is local sign of weakness coming from lack of momentum. Any lack of momentum is ALWAYS a potential threat and risk to your positions. The market is clearly having little steam to push forward, but it can easily change at any time. Currently it’s resisting to break through the baseline after visiting long-range bottom bands on 25th of March at 50k support. All is needed for BTCUSD to bring explosive upside move is closing a daily candle through the baseline. When that happens, Id expect bitcoin to follow up quickly with test of short- and long-range volatility bands at resistances: 65.6-68.6k. Until that happens, there is a risk of throwback towards short-range band support at 55.8-56k. Key BPRO resistance is Breaker High at 60804. Close the day above it and BTC should fly big.
Middaily chart pictures the problem of momentum well here. BTCUSD is in a steady sideways-vibe trend and despite it technically is an uptrend (higher highs, higher lows), I choose to stay extremely cautious. Low momentum trends do ALWAYS make it hard for any traders, indicators or trading systems to sustain full credibility. Even though I personally apply a lot of filters and lag to my BPRO 12h settings to decrease the amount of signals to increase the win rate, it still happens not to give a perfect setup signal. It’s not surprising at all though. BPRO being the trend-following breakout system will confirm strongest trend to appear whenever long-range bands (66.5k or 51.2k) are broken and pressed upon by price action. Local key level is Breaker High at 58854, which combined with Mean of 56011 brings sort of a bullish cussion – support area for BTCUSD. BPRO flashed buy signal some time ago and I chose to follow it.
MTF picture adds uncertainty from the market side to the local situation. Although BTC made a new local high breaking through the resistance of 60k more than a week ago and followed with higher highs on April 10th, it’s still lacking momentum to expand sharply in the upside direction. This shows the entire problem. It’s weak trend inside of a bigger weak trend. Weakness is not negative per se. It’s neutral and that’s the issue. Lack of direction is what pushes traders to flip their directional bias too often and get trapped, liquidated on every fakeout as they don’t recognize low momentum. Key levels based on BPRO I’d pay most attention to are 53312 and 63700. Local support is 58300.
Hourly chart is even more clueless and non-directional than medium-term pictures. Long trend length settings set to eliminate the noise. Perfect middle of nothing. Sideways in a sideways in a sideways in a long-term uptrend. I don’t suggest you should over trade this choppy area. For most of the traders it would be safest to wait out either to 56 or 53k retest, OR to at least breakout over 62k ATH level. Until then it’s completely lacking direction and should be approached with huge doze of caution. All the key levels were already mentioned so make sure to apply them and mark in your charts as they would act like technical magnets for the price action anytime soon. On another note, huge event is coming your way with 14-day free trading congress starting on May 3rd. Watch for announcements and first details. God bless yall.
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